As prime minister, Erdogan presided over the dramatic rise and
fall of Turkey's economy, wooing the emerging East before being undone by the
winding back of stimulus programs in the West.
Despite the economic decline, and a 52% presidential vote being
lower than expected, Erdogan's aims for expansion remain undimmed.
He has outlined plans to boost Turkey's GDP from $820 billion in
2013 to $2 trillion in 2023, and to more than double per capita income from
just under $11,000 to $25,000 in the same time frame. The year 2023 is
important to Erdogan, as it is the 100th anniversary of the country's founding
as a modern state by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.
Near term, the real challenge is avoiding stagnation due to the
challenges in neighboring Syria and especially in Northern Iraq -- where the
march of terrorist group ISIS continues -- which are undermining growth. After
hitting 2% in 2012, the economy grew 4% last year. The government is expecting
to show 4% growth for 2014.
In his victory speech Erdogan, who as PM presided over the violent Gezi Park protests, a Twitter blackout and a corruption probe that hit the government,
declared he wanted to start a "social reconciliation" period, leaving
the "tensions, culture of clashes and virtual problems" in the
"old Turkey."
acy failed?
Erdogan's force of personality carried him through nearly 12 years
of prime ministership and he should not be underestimated in this new role.
But his controversial rule as prime minister prompted ratings
agency Fitch to Monday say political risk remained high as Erdogan shifted his
power to president.
"Given the anti-government protests last summer in response
to Erdogan's perceived authoritarian tendencies," Fitch said,
"political tension is likely to remain high as Erdogan seeks to extend the
power of the presidency."
Fitch warned Turkey's "policy coherence and credibility"
was already weaker than its ratings peers, noting Erdogan's leadership had
contributed to political risk that fed credit weakness.
Beyond the domestic concerns, Erdogan cannot control the
volatility of his country's neighborhood -- and could find his plans entangled in
his own divisive history and that of the region.
No comments:
Post a Comment